Who had plans to watch an NFL playoff game in Houston this year?
Anyone…?
I’m sure the Houston Texans are as surprised as the rest of us that they’re hosting the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Wild Card Round later today.
After a topsy-turvy Week 18, the Texans earned the AFC South title and the home postseason game that goes along with it. Their Super Bowl odds sit at +3,500, and oddsmakers are giving the nod to the visitor in this game, setting Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite in the Wild Card odds.
I break down the NFL odds for this afternoon’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Browns at Texans on Saturday, January 13.
Be sure to check out our Browns vs. Texans props and C.J. Stroud spotlight as well!
Browns vs Texans odds
Browns vs Texans predictions
If the Houston Texans don’t want young C.J. Stroud to crack under the playoff pressure, they’ll need running back Devin Singletary to share that weight in the Wild Card Round.
The Cleveland Browns defense will look to come after the first-year QB, boasting one of the nastiest pass rushes in the land, and in order to keep Cleveland honest, Houston will go with a healthy dose of the ground game.
Singletary didn’t do much against Cleveland back in Week 16, picking up only 44 yards on nine carries, but that had more to do with the Texans falling behind so quickly without Stroud under center and having to abandon the run game early on.
Singletary still picked up 4.9 yards per carry and had a nice 17-yard gain in the first quarter that could have been a home run play if not for a shoe-string trip-up from the Browns safety.
If Cleveland’s defense does have a glaring soft spot, it’s slowing down the run. The Browns do rank No. 1 in run-stop win rate at ESPN, but they’re middle of the road in EPA allowed per handoff on the year with that advanced metric sliding back to 20th since Week 12.
The Browns have given up 65 yards or more to a running back in four of the seven games in that stretch, including getting gashed for 80-plus yards in three of those outings. Cleveland has allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the past three weeks.
Singletary started the season slow but has been a beast in the second half of the schedule, marching for 60 yards or more in six of the past nine outings. He’s knocked Dameon Pierce from atop the depth chart and is getting the bulk of snaps and carries.
He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry since Week 9, just shy of 69 yards per game, and has a great shot to top his rushing yards total in Saturday’s playoff game. Bookies have Singletary’s rushing yards prop parked at 63.5 yards (Over -114).
Wild Card player projections are positive for Singletary, with many models coming in well above 70 yards on the ground this Saturday. There’s a ceiling of 85.6 yards while my number is a bit more tempered, forecasted at 72 rushing yards.
My best bet: Devin Singletary Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Browns vs Texans same-game parlay
Devin Singletary Over 63.5 rushing yardsAmari Cooper anytime TDElijah Moore Over 29.5 receiving yards
+361 at FanDuel
Singletary shares the offensive load with Stroud, with projections pointing to a big day on the ground vs. a softer Browns run stop.
Amari Cooper caught two touchdowns vs. Houston in Week 16 and will be Flacco’s favorite option.
Elijah Moore had a quiet day vs. Houston earlier in the season but he’s also been a top target for Flacco. His 29.5-yard receiving total is a notable downtick from his standard O/U of 35.5 the previous two games. Projections sit closer to 40 yards for the WR.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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