NFL underdogs are 30-18 ATS entering Week 4 of the 2021 season – a 62.5 percent cover clip for those point spread pups. That’s the best three-week start for NFL underdogs since 2002, when dogs finished 29-16-1 ATS (64 percent).
But excuse me if I’m not doing cartwheels.
As a guy who prides himself on making his best NFL picks from only teams getting the points (and a guy who couldn’t do a cartwheel to save his life), I’ve seen this song and dance before. You see, underdogs always have an early-season edge.
In the opening month of the schedule, point spreads are made from public perception and offseason projections formulated from last year’s results. The so-called good teams are rarely as good as we think and bad teams – often pegged as underdogs in September – aren’t as bad.
Dogs have barked loudest in the first three weeks of football for a while now, going 283-229-11 ATS in the opening three weeks between 2010 and 2020 – a blind 55 percent win rate for those “bad” teams.
However, the universe demands balance, and the scales start to teeter when the calendar flips to October and beyond, when it quickly becomes clear just which teams are truly good and bad. And whaddya know, my kids are clamoring for costumes and everything suddenly has pumpkin spice in it.
Oh, hello October.
Here are my favorite NFL Week 4 underdog picks and predictions.
