The New York Giants bring an 0-2 record to Huntington Bank Field when they take on the Cleveland Browns this Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Browns will look to make it two wins in a row, and my Giants vs. Browns predictions are calling for Cleveland’s lead tailback to stuff the stat sheet.
Find out more in my NFL picks for September 22.
Giants vs Browns prediction
My best betJerome Ford Over 49.5 rushing yards (-111 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The New York Giants have surrendered a healthy 5.81 yards per carry to opposing running backs through two games, and the Cleveland Browns backfield is down to Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman, with Pierre Strong already ruled out of Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury.
Ford has paced the Browns in offensive snaps in consecutive weeks, and while Foreman received more carries in Week 2, Ford turned his seven touches into 64 yards and remains the No. 1 back on the depth chart. Even if the two backs work in a near timeshare and Foreman handles more short-yardage work, Ford will still see plenty of between-the-20s action.
Plus, Foreman spelling Ford — and vice versa — keeps both backs fresh to take advantage of this plus-matchup.
In addition to giving up chunk runs in bunches, the Giants also have allowed the seventh-highest EPA per rush and rank 25th in run-defense grade per PFF. With the Browns listed as a healthy 6.5-point home favorite, there should be plenty of work for both Ford and Foreman to have success against a leaky New York rush defense.
Of course, Ford has also been a solid rusher dating back to last season. He averaged 4.0 yards per tote with 2.87 yards after contact per attempt, as well as an elite 32.0 breakaway%.
It’s only been two weeks, but Ford’s 5.7 YPC and 33.3 BAY% reinforce he’s capable with the ball in his hands.
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Giants vs Browns same-game parlay
Browns -6.5Jerome Ford Over 49.5 rushing yardsAmari Cooper Over 47.5 receiving yards
+360 at BetMGM
It may have resembled baby steps, but there was definitely progress from Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson in Week 2. He protected the football to win as a road dog, and it’s the recipe for success for the Browns. Even with a ho-hum start on defense, Cleveland ranks ninth in success rate allowed and eighth in PFF defense grade, while New York enters with uninspiring 26th and 23rd respective offensive ranks.
The targets have been there for Browns receiver Amari Cooper, but he and Watson have only turned his 17 looks into five catches for 27 yards. Cooper opened the season with receiving-yards totals of 56.5 and 57.5, so we’re landing a decreased number, and his underlying numbers are great. The former first-round pick boasts a 22.4% target share with a high-end 127.5 air yards per game, along with a healthy 11.5 aDoT.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Browns odds
Giants vs Browns live odds
Giants vs Browns opening odds
- Spread: New York +6.5 | Cleveland -6.5
- Moneyline: New York +240 | Cleveland -300
- Over/Under: Over 39 | Under 39
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Giants vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
- BetMGM opened with Cleveland trading as a -6.5 favorite, and the shop briefly moved to a -7 spread before returning to the opening line.
- I’m anticipating the Browns being a popular pick for teaser bettors, too. Cleveland can currently be moved all the way down to a -0.5 favorite.
- BetMGM opened at 39, dropped to 38, and has fluctuated multiple times since Sunday afternoon.
