A pair of NFL division leaders square off on Sunday afternoon as the Baltimore Ravens host the Detroit Lions. The Lions are atop the NFC North with a 5-1 record while the Ravens are the No. 1 team in the AFC North with a 4-2 mark.
NFL odds for this Week 7 showdown opened with the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites before shifting to the key number of -3. Check out my best free NFL picks for Lions vs. Ravens below.
Lions vs Ravens odds
Lions vs Ravens predictions
The Detroit Lions are fresh off a 20-6 road victory against the Buccaneers which improved their record to 5-1 straight up and against the spread. Their only loss this season came in overtime against the Seahawks. The Lions have gone a perfect 3-0 on the road, which bodes well for them in Baltimore.
The Baltimore Ravens are back home after spending last week in London where they beat the Titans 24-16 as 5.5-point favorites.
Baltimore’s offense struggled in the red zone going just 1-6 but their defense held the Titans to just 104 passing yards. Baltimore’s stop unit has been terrific and is second in the league in defensive EPA but it’s strength against strength in this matchup with the Lions ranked fifth in offensive EPA.
The Ravens are tied for the NFL lead with 24 sacks but surprisingly rank just 26th in pressure rate (19.3%). They were able to take advantage of Tennessee’s struggling offensive line last week but they’ll have a much tougher time against a Detroit line that has the highest pass block grade in the league, according to PFF.
In addition, Detroit’s Jared Goff has the highest offensive grade in the league among quarterbacks, per PFF, so he’ll present a tougher challenge than Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis. It’s also worth mentioning that Ravens defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald employs plenty of two-high shell looks which leaves the middle of the field open — the area where Detroit loves to attack.
The Lions offense did get a hit by losing running back David Montgomery to a rib injury, but first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is on track to return after missing the last two weeks with a hamstring injury.
On the other side of the ball, this Ravens offense continues to be one of the few run-based units in the NFL. They run the ball at the second-highest rate in the league (51.79%) and they rank eighth in rush EPA. However, Detroit is seventh in the league in defensive rush EPA while allowing the second-fewest yards per carry (3.3).
Considering how well the Lions have played this year (especially on the road), it’s tough to turn down three points against a Ravens team returning from London. Especially with the Ravens averaging a modest 22.2 points per game this season and struggling to cover as a favorite over the last few years.
My best bet: Lions +3 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Lions vs Ravens same-game parlay
Lions +3.5 (-150)Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 5.5 receptions (-150)Mark Andrews Over 53.5 rec yds (-110)
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The Over 5.5 on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receptions is juiced to -150 but that’s still a steal when you consider that he’s eclipsed that number in 12 of his last 14 games. St. Brown missed Week 5 with an abdomen injury but proved that he was back to full strength last week by hauling in 12 of 15 targets for 124 yards.
Detroit’s defense has improved in a lot of key areas but one area where they still struggle is defending tight ends. Baltimore has a damn good tight end in three-time Pro Bowler Mark Andrews. Andrews is Lamar Jackson’s security blanket and he has racked up at least 65 receiving yards in each of his last three contests.
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Lions vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Ravens at -2.5 and that number has ticked up to -3 with early money coming in on Baltimore. The total opened at 44 and was quickly hammered down to 42 with early weather reports projecting heavy winds gusting at 20 mph by game day.
The Lions have been winning and covering this season and this is actually the first time since opening night at Arrowhead where they’ve been installed as underdogs.
With a dominant defense that holds opponents to just 15.2 ppg and an inconsistent offense that doesn’t make enough big plays, the Ravens have been an Under machine this year at 1-5 O/U.
